Is Timing a Rotation into Duration Worth the Risk?
Oct. 23, 2024As Fixed Income market dynamics shift, the prospects of capital appreciation through a rotation into longer dated bonds sounds enticing. But as Mark Webster, Director, Institutional & Advisory ETF Distribution explains, timing the market is a fraught endeavour, while there are plenty of other options via targeted ETF exposures.
After having endured a torturous spell in Fixed Income markets as rates rose precipitously post-COVID, many investment managers are keen to scrape back some of their previous losses. The prospect that falling rates will provide a material bump in bond prices has tempted many investors to speculate on when to time a rotation into longer Duration exposures to salve some of their earlier injury.
Tempting though it may be, timing markets and interest rate changes is perilous, and in fact introduces the possibility of unnecessary risks.
With extensive choice for allocations along both the Canadian and U.S. yield curves, investment managers can use precisely segmented ETFs to take tailored allocations that can effectively manage risk and return. Understanding that alpha in bond markets has more to do with credit and term decisions, and less to do with security selection, it makes sense to use ETFs given their ability to access specific points along the yield curve — and do so with better execution than is possible in the cash bond market.
This makes particular sense at this juncture, when rate changes may present a tactical opportunity.
A quick glance across BMO Global Asset Management’s Canadian and U.S. bond ETF listings shows it may not be necessary to add or alter an investor’s Duration exposure in order to generate alpha or otherwise sweeten their Fixed Income holdings.
There are several interesting considerations:
- In U.S. and Canadian Investment Grade (IG) bonds, ultra short-term securities provide the most attractive profile;
- The BMO Floating Rate High Yield ETF (Ticker: ZFH) , due to its synthetic structure (vastly improves liquidity), anchored by a 90-day T-Bill, can provide an enduring lift to bond yields without toying with Duration;
- The BMO High Quality Corporate Bond Index ETF (Ticker: ZQB), consisting of Canadian A-rated corporate bonds), offer a more appealing profile that BBB-rated issues, while maintaining a high credit quality;
- The BMO Emerging Markets Bond Hedged to CAD Index ETF (Ticker: ZEF), consisting of Emerging Markets sovereign bonds (debt-to GDP weighted), is two-thirds Investment Grade Credit and provides an interesting balance of yield, credit worthiness and lower Duration than universe bonds.
BMO GAM Fixed Income ETFs
Canada |
MER (bps) |
Distribution Yield |
Average Duration |
Yield/Duration |
8 |
3.50% |
7.2 |
0.49 |
|
9 |
2.40% |
7.2 |
0.33 |
|
12 |
4.80% |
N/A |
N/A |
|
15 |
4.90% |
0.4 |
12.25 |
|
15 |
3.70% |
4.0 |
0.93 |
|
10 |
3.40% |
3.2 |
1.06 |
|
30 |
3.90% |
5.9 |
0.66 |
|
20 |
3.00% |
17.9 |
0.17 |
|
25 |
3.80% |
14.6 |
0.26 |
|
30 |
4.70% |
12.3 |
0.38 |
|
U.S. |
MER (bps) |
Distribution |
Duration |
Yield/Duration |
8 |
2.20% |
6.1 |
0.36 |
|
12 |
5.19% |
N/A |
N/A |
|
15 |
5.30% |
0.4 |
13.25 |
|
25 |
4.00% |
6.0 |
0.67 |
|
40 |
8.20% |
0.2 |
41.00 |
|
55 |
6.00% |
3.1 |
1.94 |
|
20 |
3.30% |
16.7 |
0.20 |
|
15 |
4.50% |
6.5 |
0.69 |
|
Emerging Markets |
MER (bps) |
Distribution |
Duration |
Yield/Duration |
50 |
4.70% |
4.4 |
1.07 |
Source: Bloomberg/BMO Global Asset Management, as of September 30, 2024.
There may be a temptation to carefully play a Duration card, capturing some lift in bond prices. But this data shows there is enduring yield to be had across the bond market regardless of term compared to recent years. It might be a wiser course of action to expand bond allocations to include some of these appealing bond segments, boosting yield, while avoiding the temptation to time markets.
BMO ETFs’ decision to segment the yield curve allows Investment Counsellors the ability to construct more sophisticated Fixed Income portfolios without the burden of researching and trading individual issues, both of which demand significant operational and compliance resources. Fixed income is the area where ETFs have brought the greatest benefit to securities trading and management, underscored once more through allocations that can deliver desired investment outcomes through means that do not necessarily require the often-fraught task of timing the market.
To learn more about BMO’s suite of Fixed Income ETFs or receive other trading insights, reach out to your BMO ETF Specialist at their email address or via telephone at 1−877−741−7263.
Performance data, as of September 30, 2024 (%):
Year-to-Date |
1-Month |
3-Month |
6-Month |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
10-Year |
Since Inception |
|
4.26 |
1.92 |
4.66 |
5.56 |
12.90 |
-0.17 |
0.55 |
2.12 |
2.90 |
|
4.27 |
1.95 |
4.70 |
5.58 |
12.98 |
-0.28 |
0.67 |
2.14 |
2.34 |
|
3.76 |
0.37 |
1.17 |
2.43 |
5.13 |
- |
- |
- |
3.76 |
|
4.13 |
0.46 |
1.43 |
2.76 |
5.74 |
3.54 |
2.62 |
2.08 |
2.10 |
|
6.57 |
1.88 |
4.56 |
5.97 |
13.37 |
2.12 |
- |
- |
2.53 |
|
5.91 |
1.62 |
3.96 |
5.23 |
11.44 |
1.96 |
- |
- |
2.14 |
|
6.87 |
2.30 |
5.52 |
6.75 |
16.10 |
1.23 |
2.32 |
3.20 |
4.13 |
|
1.04 |
2.71 |
6.23 |
6.20 |
17.14 |
-4.60 |
-3.64 |
0.79 |
2.57 |
|
1.52 |
2.47 |
5.44 |
5.74 |
16.72 |
-3.57 |
-2.34 |
2.06 |
2.26 |
|
4.02 |
3.25 |
5.80 |
5.93 |
17.99 |
-0.65 |
-0.03 |
3.11 |
4.94 |
|
3.58 |
1.17 |
4.86 |
4.71 |
10.19 |
- |
- |
- |
5.20 |
|
6.10 |
0.75 |
0.15 |
2.48 |
5.46 |
- |
- |
- |
5.46 |
|
4.14 |
0.46 |
1.51 |
2.81 |
5.81 |
3.38 |
2.31 |
- |
2.30 |
|
5.06 |
1.50 |
5.50 |
5.65 |
13.46 |
-1.33 |
0.77 |
2.52 |
2.51 |
|
8.75 |
1.26 |
3.50 |
4.85 |
15.19 |
7.52 |
4.96 |
5.34 |
5.12 |
|
6.59 |
1.36 |
4.70 |
5.60 |
14.20 |
1.6 |
2.69 |
3.07 |
4.83 |
|
0.81 |
1.79 |
7.54 |
5.04 |
13.35 |
-10.35 |
- |
- |
-6.06 |
|
4.41 |
1.37 |
3.92 |
4.56 |
8.74 |
- |
- |
- |
3.03 |
|
7.12 |
1.24 |
4.94 |
4.76 |
14.49 |
-1.117 |
0.63 |
1.72 |
3.62 |
ZAG inception date January 19, 2010. ZDB inception date February 10, 2014. ZMMK inception date November 21, 2021.ZST inception date January 28, 2011. ZBBB inception date February 5, 2020. ZQB inception date February 5, 2020. ZCM inception date January 19, 2010. ZFL inception date May 19, 2010. ZPL inception date March 19, 2023. ZLC inception date January 19, 2010. ZUAG.F inception date January 23, 2023. ZUCM inception date September 27, 2023. ZMU inception date March 20, 2013. ZFH inception date February 10, 2014. ZHY inception date October 20, 2009. ZTL.F inception date February 5, 2020. TIPS.F inception date January 23, 2023. ZEF inception date May 21, 2010.
Disclosures:
For advisor and institutional use only.
Any statement that necessarily depends on future events may be a forward-looking statement. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Although such statements are based on assumptions that are believed to be reasonable, there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations. Investors are cautioned not to rely unduly on any forward-looking statements. In connection with any forward-looking statements, investors should carefully consider the areas of risk described in the most recent prospectus.
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Distribution yields are calculated by using the most recent regular distribution, or expected distribution, (which may be based on income, dividends, return of capital, and option premiums, as applicable) and excluding additional year end distributions, and special reinvested distributions annualized for frequency, divided by month end net asset value (NAV). The yield calculation does not include reinvested distributions.
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