Bipan Rai joined BMO Global Asset Management in 2024 and currently serves as Head of ETF Strategy, delivering strategic research for the ETF and Structured Solutions team. He is highly regarded for his macroeconomic insights as well as his knowledge of market structure for various asset classes. His focus is on fundamental macro research and the implications for the ETF market place, including economic, monetary and fiscal policy analysis alongside developments in funding and liquidity. Prior to joining BMO GAM, Bipan spent 13 years as a top-ranked strategist at a large Canadian dealer. He has won several awards for his research from various publications (Greenwich Survey, Bloomberg) and is a regular contributor to global business media outlets (BNN/Bloomberg, CNBC, WSJ). He holds an MBA from the Schulich School of Business at York University and a Bachelor of Engineering degree (Aerospace Engineering) from Toronto Metropolitan University.
Gold tends to be a safe haven asset in times of economic uncertainty for its enduring value and lower correlation1 to traditional asset classes, offering a way to diversify portfolios. Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, expected rate cuts, and market volatility, gold has been on a record run in 2024. Here are five reasons we believe it will continue to shine.
Tariff risk is a significant challenge for the Canadian economy — but it’s certainly not the only one confronting policy makers and the private sector. Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist for CIBC joins Bipan Rai, director of ETF strategy at BMO ETFs to discuss how to handle Trump’s tariff shock, as well as other economic risk factors facing Canada. This episode was recorded live on April 10, 2025.
Gold prices have skyrocketed as investors both big and small have poured into the precious metal seeking its relative stability amid ongoing trade uncertainty and market risks. Daniel Ghali, director, commodities strategy at TD Securities joins Bipan Rai, director of ETF strategy for BMO ETFs to discuss who’s behind gold’s big moves and where prices could go as the year progresses. This episode was recorded live on April 8, 2025.
Trump’s tariffs have sent stock markets on a roller-coaster ride. Are investors ready for more? In this special episode, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Erin Allen, dive into the four corrective channels to watch and share ideas for defensive portfolio positioning. Erin Allen is Director of Online Distribution at BMO Exchange Traded Funds. She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, Exchange Traded Funds at BMO Global Asset Management. The episode was recorded live on Wednesday, April 9, 2025.
It’s always best to look before you leap. In this special episode, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Erika Toth, share why they are proceeding with a healthy degree of market caution over exuberance and provide a second quarter update on portfolio positioning. Erika Toth is a Director of Institutional and Advisory for Eastern Canada at BMO Global Asset Management (BMO GAM). She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, Exchange Traded Funds at BMO GAM. The episode was recorded live on Monday, March 31, 2025.
Volatile markets have greeted the tariff regime the Trump Administration appears intent on enacting. Ahead of a key April 2nd deadline for a wave of U.S. reciprocal trade levies to be imposed, Chris Krueger, Managing Director, Washington Research Group, TD Cowen and host Bipan Rai, BMO ETFs Strategist, discuss some of the pressing questions that investors, policymakers and markets are seeking clarity on. This episode was recorded live on March 23, 2025.
Will inflation’s sudden spike push the Bank of Canada to press pause on rate cuts? In this episode, Bipan Rai, Matt Montemurro, and your host, Erika Toth, examine Canada’s latest CPI print. They also discuss the outcome of this week’s Fed meeting, the outlook for the REITs, and fixed income positioning for the months ahead.
In this episode, special guest Sohrab Movahedi, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Skye Collyer, take a deep dive into Canada’s Big Six banks, from first-quarter earnings results to Trump’s tariffs and all the key themes in between. Skye Collyer is a Director of ETF Distribution at BMO Global Asset Management. She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, Exchange Traded Funds, at BMO Global Asset Management, and Sohrab Movahedi, Managing Director of Financials Research at BMO Capital Markets. This episode was recorded on Monday, March 10, 2025.
What are ETF flows telling us? In this episode, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Erika Toth, pour over the latest industry data and provide detailed insights on how to navigate choppy markets. Erika Toth is a Director of Institutional and Advisory for Eastern Canada at BMO Global Asset Management (BMO GAM). She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, BMO GAM. The episode was recorded live on Thursday, March 6, 2025.
Trump’s tariffs are coming — the question is: when? In this episode, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Zayla Saunders, discuss key dates and the potential real-world implications of a prolonged trade war. Zayla Saunders is a Senior Associate for Online Distribution at BMO Exchange Traded Funds. She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, BMO Global Asset Management. The episode was recorded live on Wednesday, February 26, 2025.
What are the sectoral flows into and out of the Global Industry Classification Standards, or GICS, telling us? In this episode, special guest Michael Arone, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Erika Toth, delve into the leaders and laggards. They also look back at historical trends and ahead for potential opportunities.
As the world reacts to Trump’s tariffs, questions mount over the far-reaching implications. In this episode, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, Portfolio Manager Jeremy Yeung, and your host, Michelle Allen, explore what this could mean for the domestic economy, global supply chains, and the Technology sector. Michelle Allen is a Senior Associate of Online Distribution at BMO Exchange Traded Funds. She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, the Head of ETF Strategy at BMO Global Asset Management (BMO GAM), and Jeremy Yeung, a Portfolio Manager (Technology and Communications), Global Equity, at BMO GAM. The episode was recorded live on Monday, February 3, 2025, at 11:00 AM, before Trump and Trudeau confirmed a 30-day moratorium on tariffs.
How are today’s hot-button issues impacting markets? In this episode, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Erika Toth, share more on their cautiously optimistic outlook and provide a first quarter update on portfolio positioning.
As a shifting economic backdrop fans recession fears in the U.S., is a soft landing still on the table? In this episode, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Erika Toth, analyze the market outlook. They also discuss our third quarter investment strategy reports and portfolio construction across asset classes. Erika Toth is a Director of Institutional and Advisory for Eastern Canada at BMO Global Asset Management (BMO GAM). She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, at BMO GAM. The episode was recorded live on Wednesday, August 28, 2024.
As we update our quarterly portfolio strategy, we’re reminded of an important lesson that often must be re-learned. Namely, that markets are terrible at forecasting non-linear events.
To wit, we are preparing this edition just ahead of the “America First Trade Policy” memorandum is scheduled to be released. That release is expected to recommend additional country-specific tariffs to be implemented based on the principle of reciprocity and other non-tariff barriers.
Additionally, tariff exemptions on USMCA-compliant imports from Canada and Mexico are set to expire on April 2nd while the threat of sector-specific damage on autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals still looms large.
Given the backdrop, the priority for our fixed income portfolio is to focus on strong credit and to optimize yield at a shorter duration.
In the U.S., data that tracks the real economy appears to be slowing, but we don’t get the sense that the Federal Reserve is in any hurry to ease policy rates. That’s largely due to the potential from ‘stickier’ consumer prices as tariffs start to make their presence felt.
Since the beginning of 2024, the spot price for Gold has risen by near 40%. That is quite the feat considering that most central banks had stopped hiking rates last year, and the availability of higher yielding instruments should have meant that a ‘zero yielding asset’ such as a precious metal should have consolidated at the very least.
Nevertheless, we’re not here to diagnose what led to these remarkable gains. Instead, our focus for this note — which also dovetails nicely with the one-year anniversary of the launch of the BMO Gold Bullion ETF (Ticker: ZGLD) — is to examine whether or not we should expect to see further upside from here. And after careful thought and deliberation, we identify three reasons for optimism as well as one important risk to monitor.
As each day passes, we grow ever more concerned that tariffs are becoming a more mainstream concept at all government levels in the United States.
Indeed, there is a compelling reason for Republicans in both chambers of Congress to consider tariffs to solve an important problem. Namely, that the ability to extend tax cuts while trimming the bloated budget deficit looks increasingly untenable without tariff-related revenues.
In this note, we’ll quickly rehash the current state of affairs when it comes to the budget resolution process that is underway in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Then we’ll go over why it may become difficult to extricate tariffs from tax cuts over the coming months – even if there are additional tariff delays from the White House. Finally, we offer three takeaways for our readers as well as ideas to take advantage of an environment where tariffs become a more permanent fixture.
In the markets, the theme of ‘American exceptionalism’ has received a lot of air play of late – and for good reason. Over the past two years, the benchmark S&P 500 has increased by at least 25%. In fact, since the end of 2018, the index is up by close to 160% with an average annual return of 18.6%. With all due respect to the other large developed markets, it’s only in the U.S. where an investor could have hoped to sniff numbers like that.
And to be sure, investors have been voting with their feet. More than any other time in modern history, the U.S. market is benefitting from an influx of foreign capital. The impact has been profound, with market valuations now at levels comparable to the throes of the Covid-19 shock as well as the ‘tech bubble’ at the turn of the century. Within leading global equity indices, the U.S. accounts for almost 70% of the weight—well over double where things stood a few decades ago.
One of the more important themes over the past several months has been the sell-off in the long-end across numerous jurisdictions.
Of course, this theme has been led by a combination of macro and idiosyncratic factors – the latter of which has resulted in considerable spillover effects.
All prices, returns and portfolio weights are as of market close on September 30, 2024, unless otherwise indicated.
So here we are. Just a few short months after his inauguration, U.S. President Donald Trump has fired the opening salvo of a global trade war.
While precise estimates on the new U.S. average effective tariff rate vary, there is broad consensus that it is well north of 20%. That is a stark difference from where it was a few months back (around 2-3%), and it signals a return for the U.S. to restrictive trade policies not seen since the days of the Great Depression just under a century ago.
Heading into this year, a sizeable contingent of investors anticipated a broadening out of momentum away from the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla). From a sectoral perspective, that meant rotating away from Communications, Technology and Discretionary, and into sectors that offered potential value.