As we update our quarterly portfolio strategy, we’re reminded of an important lesson that often must be re-learned. Namely, that markets are terrible at forecasting non-linear events. To wit, we are preparing this edition just ahead of the “America First Trade Policy” memorandum is scheduled to be released. That release is expected to recommend additional country-specific tariffs to be implemented based on the principle of reciprocity and other non-tariff barriers. Additionally, tariff exemptions on USMCA-compliant imports from Canada and Mexico are set to expire on April 2nd while the threat of sector-specific damage on autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals still looms large.
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In the markets, the theme of ‘American exceptionalism’ has received a lot of air play of late – and for good reason. Over the past two years, the benchmark S&P 500 has increased by at least 25%. In fact, since the end of 2018, the index is up by close to 160% with an average annual return of 18.6%. With all due respect to the other large developed markets, it’s only in the U.S. where an investor could have hoped to sniff numbers like that.
All prices, returns and portfolio weights are as of market close on September 30, 2024, unless otherwise indicated.
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