Given the backdrop, the priority for our fixed income portfolio is to focus on strong credit and to optimize yield at a shorter duration.
In the U.S., data that tracks the real economy appears to be slowing, but we don’t get the sense that the Federal Reserve is in any hurry to ease policy rates. That’s largely due to the potential from ‘stickier’ consumer prices as tariffs start to make their presence felt.
Related Strategy & Insights
As we update our quarterly portfolio strategy, we’re reminded of an important lesson that often must be re-learned. Namely, that markets are terrible at forecasting non-linear events.
To wit, we are preparing this edition just ahead of the “America First Trade Policy” memorandum is scheduled to be released. That release is expected to recommend additional country-specific tariffs to be implemented based on the principle of reciprocity and other non-tariff barriers.
Additionally, tariff exemptions on USMCA-compliant imports from Canada and Mexico are set to expire on April 2nd while the threat of sector-specific damage on autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals still looms large.
Related Trade Ideas & Podcasts
It’s always best to look before you leap. In this special episode, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Erika Toth, share why they are proceeding with a healthy degree of market caution over exuberance and provide a second quarter update on portfolio positioning. Erika Toth is a Director of Institutional and Advisory for Eastern Canada at BMO Global Asset Management (BMO GAM). She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, Exchange Traded Funds at BMO GAM. The episode was recorded live on Monday, March 31, 2025.