Strategy & Insights

So here we are. Just a few short months after his inauguration, U.S. President Donald Trump has fired the opening salvo of a global trade war.

While precise estimates on the new U.S. average effective tariff rate vary, there is broad consensus that it is well north of 20%. That is a stark difference from where it was a few months back (around 2-3%), and it signals a return for the U.S. to restrictive trade policies not seen since the days of the Great Depression just under a century ago.

Heading into this year, a sizeable contingent of investors anticipated a broadening out of momentum away from the ​‘Magnificent 7’ stocks (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla). From a sectoral perspective, that meant rotating away from Communications, Technology and Discretionary, and into sectors that offered potential value.